2025-11-12 17:01
As I sit here watching the latest USF Dons basketball practice, I can't help but feel that familiar mix of excitement and apprehension that comes with every new season. The question on everyone's mind—and the one I've been wrestling with myself—is whether this year's squad can finally break through and secure that elusive NCAA Tournament bid. Having followed this program for over a decade, I've seen promising teams fall short more times than I'd like to admit, but something feels different about this group. The energy in the gym is electric, and there's a sense of purpose that I haven't witnessed in previous seasons.
Let's be honest about where we're starting from. Last season's 18-15 record wasn't terrible, but it wasn't tournament-worthy either. The Dons finished sixth in the West Coast Conference, which simply won't cut it if we're talking about dancing in March. What gives me hope, though, is the returning core combined with some intriguing new pieces. Marcus Williams is back after averaging 14.2 points per game last season, and his backcourt mate Khalil Shabazz brings that gritty defensive mentality that every tournament team needs. But here's what really has me optimistic—the development pipeline that coach Chris Gerlsen has been building. I've watched this program long enough to recognize when there's genuine talent waiting in the wings, and that brings me to EJ Sapasap. It won't be long until he joins them among the talk of the town, and I'm not just saying that because I'm excited about local prospects. Having watched his high school footage and spoken with people close to the program, this kid has the kind of athleticism and basketball IQ that could provide the spark this team needs off the bench.
The West Coast Conference landscape is both challenging and opportunistic this year. Everyone knows about Gonzaga—they're practically a blue blood program at this point—but Saint Mary's lost some key pieces, and BYU's move to the Big 12 creates an opening. Realistically, I think USF needs to finish in the top three of the conference to have a legitimate shot at an at-large bid. That probably means winning at least 22 regular season games and picking up a couple of quality non-conference victories. The early schedule gives me some concern though—facing Arizona State and potentially Michigan State will be brutal tests. Still, I'd rather see them challenge themselves early than pad the record with easy wins that don't impress the selection committee.
What often gets overlooked in these discussions is the importance of team chemistry, and this is where I believe USF might have an edge. Having attended several practices and spoken with players, there's a cohesion developing that reminds me of the 2019-2020 team that came so close to breaking through. They're communicating better on defense, moving the ball with purpose on offense, and perhaps most importantly, they seem to genuinely enjoy playing together. In my experience covering college basketball, that intangible factor can be worth an extra two or three wins over the course of a season.
The defensive improvements under Gerlsen have been noticeable, but they'll need to take another step forward. Last season, the Dons allowed 71.3 points per game—not terrible, but not tournament-level defense either. What I've observed in preseason is a more aggressive switching scheme that could create more transition opportunities. If they can trim that defensive average down to around 67 points per game while maintaining their offensive production, we're looking at a completely different team.
Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room—the NCAA Tournament drought. It's been since 1998 since USF last danced, and frankly, that's too long for a program with this history and resources. The pressure is mounting, and I can sense it around the program. But pressure can either crush a team or forge it into something stronger, and my gut tells me this group is leaning toward the latter. They're tired of hearing about the drought, tired of being overlooked in the WCC conversation behind Gonzaga and Saint Mary's.
The development of younger players like Sapasap could be the X-factor that pushes this team over the top. In today's college basketball landscape, having depth that can contribute meaningful minutes is crucial, especially during the grueling conference schedule. I'm not saying he's going to be the star right away, but having watched his progression through the offseason, I believe he can provide the kind of energy and production off the bench that tournament teams need.
Looking at the broader picture, the path to the NCAA Tournament likely requires either winning the WCC Tournament—which would mean probably beating Gonzaga—or putting together such a strong resume that the selection committee can't ignore them. The former seems more plausible than the latter, given the conference's historical treatment by the committee. What gives me hope is that this team seems to be building toward peaking at the right time, rather than starting strong and fading down the stretch like we've seen in previous seasons.
As the season approaches, I find myself more optimistic than I've been in years. Maybe it's the returning experience, maybe it's the emerging talent, or maybe it's just that feeling you get when you've watched enough basketball to recognize when something special is brewing. The pieces are there—the leadership, the talent, the coaching, and perhaps most importantly, the hunger. Will it be enough to end the drought? I'm not ready to guarantee anything in this unpredictable sport, but I will say this: for the first time in a long time, it feels genuinely possible rather than just hopeful thinking. The journey begins soon, and I'll be watching every step of the way, probably with more emotional investment than is professionally advisable.
